市场多空有所僵持 菜籽油预计延续震荡运行

Core Insights - The average spot price of imported rapeseed oil in China on October 23 is reported at 10,167.50 CNY/ton, which is a premium of 410.5 CNY/ton over the futures main contract price of 9,757.00 CNY/ton [1] Price Overview - The current market prices for grade three rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows: - Xiamen, Fujian: 10,030 CNY/ton - Liu'an, Anhui: 9,930 CNY/ton - Dongguan, Guangdong: 10,090 CNY/ton - Hefei, Anhui: 9,950 CNY/ton - Fangcheng, Guangxi: 10,130 CNY/ton - The futures market closed at 9,757.00 CNY/ton with a decline of 0.83%, reaching a high of 9,837.00 CNY/ton and a low of 9,720.00 CNY/ton, with a trading volume of 216,709 contracts [2] Market Dynamics - As of October 23, the number of rapeseed oil futures warehouse receipts stands at 7,840, unchanged from the previous trading day - Coastal oil mills' rapeseed meal delivery volume as of October 17 is 0.97 million tons, down by 0.12 million tons from the previous week and significantly lower by 5.19 million tons compared to the same period last year, maintaining a three-year low [3] Analytical Insights - According to a report from Foresight Zhongqi Futures, recent diplomatic visits from Canada have raised market concerns regarding potential discussions on Canada's rapeseed import control policies, leading to cautious market sentiment that suppresses rapeseed oil futures prices - Current media reports indicate no substantial improvements in Canadian rapeseed policies following the talks, with market expectations primarily influenced by sentiment - The spot market shows a slight increase in basis quotes, diverging from futures trends, while domestic rapeseed arrivals in October and November are limited, keeping oil mill inventories and operating rates low, resulting in continued depletion of rapeseed oil stocks and strong price support from enterprises - The rapeseed oil basis remains stable, with a stalemate between bullish and bearish market forces, and futures prices are expected to continue fluctuating [4]