又一国宣布：不降息！

Core Points - The Bank of Korea decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 2.5%, indicating a cautious approach towards further easing due to pressures from the real estate market and currency fluctuations [1][2] - The central bank's forward guidance shifted from "5 in favor, 1 against" to "4 in favor, 2 against," reflecting increased concern for financial stability [2] - The Korean won depreciated, reaching a low of approximately 1441 won per dollar, marking its weakest level since April [4] - The Korean stock market reversed its upward trend, with the KOSPI index closing down by 0.98% [6] Monetary Policy - The Bank of Korea has paused interest rate cuts since July, following four rate reductions since October 2024, totaling a decrease of 100 basis points [2] - Future rate cuts are anticipated in November 2026 and May 2027, with projections suggesting a final rate of 2%, contingent on stabilizing financial imbalances and potential export slowdowns [3] Economic Context - The real estate market in South Korea has shown signs of overheating, complicating the central bank's ability to implement further monetary easing [2] - Economic indicators, such as the resilience of apartment prices in Seoul and the performance of the semiconductor industry, suggest that the rate-cutting cycle may be nearing its end [2][3]