Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-10-23 09:30Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in Pop Mart's stock price has raised concerns about the sustainability of its future performance and valuation, despite significant revenue growth in recent quarters [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On October 23, Pop Mart's stock fell by 9%, marking its largest single-day drop since April, and has decreased by 30% over the past two months [1]. - The stock price had previously surged nearly 15 times over a 17-month period, creating a new myth in Hong Kong's consumer stocks [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, Pop Mart reported a net profit of 920 million yuan, with an expected total net profit of 3.13 billion yuan for the entire year [1]. - For the first half of 2025, the company earned 4.57 billion yuan [1]. - Recent third-quarter operational data indicates overall revenue growth of 245% to 250%, with online channels growing by 300% to 305% and overseas revenue increasing by 365% to 370% [2]. Group 3: Product and Market Dynamics - The popularity of Pop Mart's flagship IP, LABUBU, has significantly contributed to its market value, with the character gaining international recognition [1]. - There are concerns about consumer fatigue regarding Pop Mart's product offerings, with calls for more diverse product forms beyond just variations of existing dolls [2]. - Industry analysts suggest that the growth momentum for Pop Mart may peak this year, with potential slowdowns in future revenue growth [2]. Group 4: Industry Insights - Industry expert Zhang Shule noted that the value of blind boxes and related products largely depends on their IP and the rarity of hidden items, rather than intrinsic value [3]. - There is a belief that Pop Mart has room for improvement in its IP storytelling and product diversity, which are crucial for sustaining growth [3]. - The recent stock price fluctuations reflect the volatility associated with rapid market capitalization growth, emphasizing the need for Pop Mart to strengthen its core offerings and innovate [3].