10月23日金市晚评：金价稳守4100美元 CPI数据能否引爆市场？

Core Insights - The US government shutdown has entered its 23rd day, with the Senate rejecting temporary funding resolutions, leading to a lack of official economic data and increased market uncertainty [3] - Gold prices have shown resilience, trading above $4100 per ounce, supported by geopolitical tensions and the ongoing government shutdown, which drives investors towards safe-haven assets [1][2] Economic Analysis - The anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) data may not provide the necessary insights for investors due to the absence of official data during the government shutdown [3] - Concerns are rising over a significant slowdown in job growth, with potential trend employment growth now estimated at only 25,000 jobs per month, a reduction of 125,000 jobs from earlier predictions [3] - Goldman Sachs economists have identified five key factors contributing to the rapid decline in job growth, including reduced immigration, government hiring cuts, the rise of AI, increased tariff costs, and heightened macroeconomic risks [3] Inflation and Market Sentiment - The core inflation rate is expected to remain at 3.1%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, with core CPI consistently above 3% for nearly five years [4] - Despite strong demand ahead of the Diwali festival in India supporting gold prices, there are rising risks of a pullback in gold and silver due to technical overbought conditions and a shift in market sentiment towards risk appetite [4] Technical Analysis - Gold's price movements have shown a more subdued volatility compared to previous days, indicating a potential stabilization after recent fluctuations [4] - Short-term moving averages are beginning to show signs of upward momentum, suggesting a possible stabilization in gold prices after recent declines [4][5] - The upward trend line in hourly charts remains intact, indicating potential for further price increases, with a focus on the $4200 resistance level [5]