日本新执政联盟谋划大规模支出 但“安倍经济学2.0”料搁浅

Core Viewpoint - The new ruling coalition in Japan, formed by the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party, is expected to support Prime Minister Sanna Takashi's large-scale fiscal spending plan while opposing a return to "Abenomics" style fiscal and monetary policies [1][2]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy - Prime Minister Sanna Takashi is anticipated to introduce a spending plan exceeding the previous administration's 13.9 trillion yen proposal, which will include measures like gasoline tax exemptions and subsidies to mitigate rising utility costs [1]. - The Japan Innovation Party has abandoned its previous proposal to temporarily freeze the consumption tax on food due to concerns over long-term fiscal sustainability [2]. - Both parties agree on the necessity of expansionary fiscal policies to support economic growth, but there is a consensus on the need for spending reforms [2]. Group 2: Economic Context - The current economic challenges differ from those during the "Abenomics" era, as Japan is now facing high inflation and a depreciating yen, which increases import costs rather than demand insufficiency [2][3]. - Analysts suggest that any spending plans will not directly target consumer stimulation due to the prevailing economic conditions [2]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - Unlike the past, the key difference in current policies may lie in monetary policy, with the Bank of Japan gradually moving towards raising ultra-low interest rates [3]. - Former Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masazumi Wakatabe indicated that while a rate hike may still be challenging this year, it could occur if the sustainability of inflation targets improves [3]. - The Japan Innovation Party's campaign platform calls for a gradual normalization of the Bank of Japan's unconventional stimulus policies once the economy stabilizes [3]. Group 4: Political Dynamics - The rising cost of living has become a political focal point, making it unlikely for both parties to oppose moderate interest rate hikes, especially if further yen depreciation exacerbates inflationary pressures [4]. - Analysts warn that if Prime Minister Takashi pressures the Bank of Japan, it could lead to further yen depreciation and faster inflation, risking her support among the Japanese public [4].