IMF与美国财政部意见相反，特朗普关税真能扭转美国赤字危局？

Core Insights - The U.S. public debt is projected to rise from 122% of GDP in 2024 to 143% by 2030 under current fiscal policies [1] - The U.S. Treasury and the IMF have differing views on the outlook for the U.S. fiscal deficit [1][4] - The U.S. budget deficit for FY 2025 is estimated at approximately $1.8 trillion, a decrease of about $41 billion from the previous fiscal year [1][3] Fiscal Trends - The U.S. Treasury reports a significant slowdown in government spending, with a year-over-year increase of only 0.2% in Q2 and a decrease of 2.5% in Q3 [3] - Cumulative deficit from April to September was $468 billion, the lowest level since 2019, down nearly 40% from the same period last year [3][4] - The Treasury attributes the improvement in fiscal conditions to increased tariff revenues and a slowdown in spending growth [1][3] Revenue Projections - Trump's tariff policy is expected to generate $300 billion in revenue this year, potentially rising to $400 billion next year [4] - The CBO predicts that the "Big and Beautiful Act" will increase the deficit by $4.1 trillion, countering the optimistic revenue forecasts [4] - The IMF warns that despite potential revenue from tariffs, the fiscal deficit is expected to widen further due to stimulative policies [4] Debt and Interest Payments - U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, increasing by $1 trillion in just over two months [5] - Interest payments on U.S. debt have reached approximately $1 trillion annually, becoming the fastest-growing item in the federal budget [5] - Over the past decade, total interest payments have amounted to $4 trillion, projected to balloon to $14 trillion over the next decade [5] Government Shutdown Impact - The ongoing government shutdown exacerbates fiscal challenges, with past shutdowns leading to significant increases in federal spending [6] - The Treasury warns that the U.S. is on an "unsustainable fiscal path," with current policies deemed unsustainable [6] - Compared to previous economic crises, the pace of deficit reduction is significantly lagging [6]