IMF与美国财政部意见相反 特朗普关税真能扭转美国赤字危局？

Core Viewpoint - There is a significant divergence between the U.S. Treasury and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding the outlook for the U.S. budget deficit, with the Treasury projecting a decrease while the IMF warns of an expanding deficit [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury's Perspective - The U.S. Treasury estimates that the budget deficit for FY 2025 will be approximately $1.8 trillion, a reduction of about $41 billion from the previous fiscal year, marking the first annual decline in deficit since the expiration of pandemic relief programs in 2022 [1]. - Treasury Secretary's economic advisor, Joe Lavorgna, attributes the improvement in fiscal conditions to increased revenue from tariffs and a significant slowdown in spending growth [1]. - From April to September, the cumulative deficit was $468 billion, the lowest level since 2019, and nearly 40% lower than the same period last year [2]. Group 2: IMF's Perspective - The IMF argues that current tariff measures are insufficient to meaningfully reduce debt and calls for more actions to address the persistently high deficit [1][3]. - The IMF's World Economic Outlook report predicts that despite later spending cuts and tariff revenues, the U.S. fiscal deficit will further widen compared to previous forecasts [3]. - The IMF warns that under current fiscal policies, U.S. public debt is expected to rise from 122% of GDP in 2024 to 143% by 2030, which is 15 percentage points higher than earlier predictions [3]. Group 3: Government Spending Trends - Government spending growth has slowed, with a mere 0.2% increase in Q2 and a 2.5% decrease in Q3 compared to the previous year [2]. - The Treasury emphasizes that the large tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration are expected to generate $300 billion in revenue this year, potentially rising to $400 billion next year [2]. Group 4: Debt and Interest Payments - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, increasing by $1 trillion in just over two months, marking one of the fastest debt growth periods outside of the pandemic [3][4]. - Interest payments on U.S. debt have reached approximately $1 trillion annually, becoming the fastest-growing item in the federal budget, with projections indicating a rise to $14 trillion over the next decade [4]. Group 5: Structural Challenges - The ongoing government shutdown exacerbates fiscal challenges, with previous shutdowns leading to significant increases in federal spending [4]. - The Treasury warns that the U.S. is on an "unsustainable fiscal path," with current policies deemed unsustainable compared to past economic crises [5].