ETF日报：煤炭价格端或持续强韧，煤炭行业基本面总体稳中有进，关注煤炭ETF

Market Overview - The market rebounded today with major indices closing in the green. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges had a total trading volume of 1.64 trillion yuan, a decrease of 23.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.22%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.09% [1] Coal Sector Performance - The coal sector continued to show strength, with the coal ETF opening higher and stabilizing, closing up by 2.46% [3][4] - As of October 17, 2025, the price of Q5500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 748 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 43 yuan per ton [7] Supply Side Analysis - In September, the output of industrial raw coal from large-scale enterprises was 410 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% but a month-on-month increase of 5.1%. The average daily output was 13.72 million tons. From January to September, the total output was 3.57 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.0% [5] - The National Energy Administration has initiated a coal mine production inspection in eight key coal-producing provinces to ensure stable coal supply. Since July and August, domestic raw coal production has significantly declined due to various factors [5] - Extreme weather has disrupted production in key areas, with heavy rainfall affecting coal mining and transportation [5] Demand Side Analysis - Since October, high temperatures in southern regions have led to a significant increase in coal demand, while northern areas have experienced rapid cooling [6] - In October, coal imports showed a decline, with the first two weeks seeing a shipment volume of 9.85 million tons, a 14.4% decrease from September and a 43.7% decrease year-on-year [6] Future Outlook - The coal price is expected to remain strong due to ongoing supply disruptions and rising winter demand. The overall fundamentals of the coal industry are stable with potential for improvement [10] - Recent expectations for state-owned enterprise reforms have strengthened, with the Red Dividend State-Owned Enterprise ETF rising by 1.00% and the Central Enterprise Win-Win ETF increasing by 1.15% [10]