特朗普称印度若再买俄石油将承受巨额关税，美印双边协议何时有眉目？

Core Viewpoint - The United States is reportedly considering reducing tariffs on Indian exports from 50% to 15%-16%, which may lead to a trade agreement between the two countries, but India would need to cut its oil imports from Russia as part of this deal [1][3]. Trade Agreement Developments - Recent reports indicate that the U.S. and India are nearing a trade agreement, with potential tariff reductions and increased import quotas for non-GMO corn from the U.S. [1] - The U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on most Indian goods, resulting in a significant decline in Indian exports to the U.S., which fell to $5.5 billion in September 2025, a 20.3% decrease month-over-month [1][7]. Impact on Indian Exports - Indian exports to the U.S. have been on a downward trend for four consecutive months, with a notable drop from $8.8 billion in May to $5.5 billion in September 2025 [7][8]. - Key sectors affected by the tariff increases include textiles, gems and jewelry, engineering products, and chemicals, highlighting the adverse impact of the tariff regime [8]. Economic Outlook - The Oxford Economics report indicates that the negative risks faced by developing countries have somewhat diminished, primarily due to reduced tariff concerns, suggesting that a severe trade war has been avoided [1][8]. - Despite the tariff risks, most economists surveyed believe that domestic factors such as fiscal policy and domestic demand are more significant influences on GDP forecasts than trade barriers [8][9]. Energy Import Considerations - India's Ministry of External Affairs emphasized the importance of maintaining consumer interests in energy amidst volatile market conditions, indicating that any decision to halt Russian oil imports would require a stable energy market plan [4]. - The U.S. has previously raised tariffs on Indian goods due to India's oil imports from Russia, which have significantly increased since 2022, making India the second-largest buyer of Russian crude oil [3][4].