Prediction Markets Say Government Shutdown Will be Record-Setting: Asia Morning Briefing

Market Overview - The U.S. government shutdown is expected to last longer than previous instances, with prediction markets indicating a potential duration of 40 days, surpassing the 35-day record from 2019 [2] - Traders on Polymarket assign a 96% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the upcoming October 29 FOMC meeting, followed by an 85% chance of another cut in December [3] Federal Reserve Independence - The Federal Reserve remains insulated from the government shutdown, allowing it to continue holding policy meetings and adjusting rates [3] Economic Data Impact - The shutdown has delayed key economic reports such as jobs, inflation, and GDP, which may force the Fed to make decisions based on incomplete data [4] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin is trading above $108,000, experiencing a 1.8% decline as traders unwind gains amid macro uncertainty [6] - Ethereum is retesting the $4,100 resistance, with treasury firms SharpLink and BitMine purchasing a combined $278 million in ETH over the past week [6] Gold and Silver Market - Gold fell 5.5% to $4,121.50 and silver dropped 7.5% to $48.37, marking significant one-day declines as traders took profits after a rally [7] Japanese Market - Japan's Nikkei 225 rose after exports grew 4.2% year-on-year in September, indicating stronger shipments to Asia despite weaker U.S. demand [7]