Explainer-Russia, at war, faces double trouble: Trump ultimatum and a hit to oil sales to India

Group 1: U.S. Sanctions - The U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, which account for around half of Russia's oil production and over 5% of global crude output [2][3] - Previous sanctions against the Russian energy sector did not significantly interrupt oil exports, indicating resilience in the face of regulatory pressures [3] Group 2: Impact on India - Indian refiners, including Reliance Industries, are planning to reduce or halt Russian oil imports due to increased U.S. pressure, having purchased 1.9 million barrels per day in the first nine months of 2025, which constituted 40% of Russia's total exports [5] Group 3: Implications for Russia - Increased sanctions may force Russia to offer deeper discounts to maintain export levels, as oil and gas revenue is crucial for funding military operations in Ukraine [6] - The Kremlin has indicated that halting crude exports is an option, but this would negatively impact allies like China and reduce revenue, countering the desired effect of Western sanctions [7]