How Will HOOD's Event Contracts Business Fare Amid Rising Competition?

Core Insights - Robinhood Markets (HOOD) faces increased competition in the event-contracts business from DraftKings Inc. (DKNG), which is entering the prediction market through the acquisition of Railbird Technologies Inc. and its subsidiary Railbird Exchange, LLC [1] - DraftKings aims to leverage its acquisition to offer event prediction trading in states where sports betting is banned, targeting retail users with the upcoming "DraftKings Predictions" app [2] - Robinhood maintains a first-mover advantage with its partnership with Kalshi, offering over 100 CFTC-regulated event contracts to 12 million monthly users, nearly double DraftKings' user base [3] Competition Landscape - The competition between Robinhood and DraftKings is intensifying as both companies target young, mobile, risk-tolerant users [4] - While Robinhood offers lower fees and broader access, DraftKings may differentiate itself with an entertainment-focused, gamified approach to event-based prediction markets [4] - DraftKings' entry into the market validates prediction markets as a mainstream asset class, potentially leading to multi-billion-dollar growth across various sectors [5] Financial Performance - Interactive Brokers (IBKR) has seen rapid growth in its Forecast business, reporting record net revenues of $1.66 billion in Q3 2025, with a 27% sequential increase in tradable Forecast events [6][7] - Unlike Robinhood and DraftKings, Interactive Brokers focuses on economic, financial, government, and climate indicators, appealing to a more analytical trading demographic [8] Stock Performance and Valuation - Over the past year, Robinhood's shares have increased by 367.4%, significantly outperforming the industry average of 33.4% [9] - Currently, Robinhood's shares trade at a premium, with a price-to-tangible book (P/TB) ratio of 15.43X compared to the industry average of 2.93X [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates year-over-year earnings growth of 64.2% for 2025 and 17% for 2026, with upward revisions in earnings estimates for both years [12]