王晋斌：中国经济进入供需再平衡关键期

Core Insights - The analysis from the China Macro Economic Forum indicates that China's economy is undergoing a significant structural transformation and upgrading, entering a critical phase of supply-demand rebalancing [1] Economic Indicators - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with tailing effects dragging down by approximately 0.8 percentage points, while new price changes contributed about 0.5 percentage points [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a narrowing year-on-year decline, remaining stable for three consecutive months, indicating reduced downward pressure on industrial prices [1] - The average wage income per capita for residents in the first three quarters was 18,659 yuan, reflecting a growth of 5.4%, which is 0.3 percentage points faster than the overall income growth rate [2] Employment and Income - The nominal wage growth outpaced nominal GDP growth, supporting consumer spending [2] - The proportion of wage income in disposable income stands at 57.4% [2] Financial Market Trends - The yield spread between 10-year government bonds and AAA-rated corporate bonds has shown a narrowing trend, indicating increased risk tolerance in the financial market [2] Production and Sales - Data indicates that industrial production and sales are approaching a favorable state, with improvements in expected cash flow [2] Policy Recommendations - The company suggests four key policy recommendations: 1. Anchor macro policies to gradually raise prices, ensuring continuity in "anti-involution" policies and supporting employment and real estate stabilization [3] 2. Encourage a moderate increase in risk appetite through sustainable equity valuations and potential monetary easing [3] 3. Leverage innovation as a key driver for high-quality economic rebalancing, with continued support for enterprise innovation [3] 4. Balance external demand and unleash internal demand by optimizing the business environment [3]