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四季度终端需求略显悲观 光伏产业链价格“按兵不动”
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang·2025-10-23 14:01

Core Viewpoint - The multi-crystalline silicon market is experiencing stable prices but faces weak demand and potential supply adjustments in the coming months [1][2] Group 1: Multi-Crystalline Silicon Market - The average transaction price for N-type multi-crystalline silicon is 53,200 CNY/ton, while N-type granular silicon is 50,500 CNY/ton, both remaining stable month-on-month [1] - Demand for silicon materials is steady, with limited growth in battery component orders and stable operating rates for silicon wafer companies [1] - Three companies are resuming production this month, leading to a slight increase in multi-crystalline silicon output expected in October [1] - The fourth quarter is projected to see a total domestic multi-crystalline silicon output of approximately 382,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [1] - By 2025, the annual domestic multi-crystalline silicon output is expected to be around 1.34 million tons, a significant year-on-year decrease of 27.3% [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Price Trends - The industry is in a critical period of structural adjustment, with inventory slightly accumulating despite a significant year-on-year supply contraction [1] - The InfoLink consultancy indicates that discussions on anti-involution storage policies are ongoing, but short-term price recovery is limited due to weak terminal demand [2] - The average transaction prices for N-type G10L, G12R, and G12 single crystal silicon wafers are 1.32 CNY/piece, 1.40 CNY/piece, and 1.68 CNY/piece, respectively, showing no significant changes [2] - The fourth quarter is expected to see a slight decline in terminal component demand, putting pressure on silicon wafer companies [2] Group 3: Battery and Component Pricing - The average prices for 183N, 210RN, and 210N battery cells are 0.315 CNY/W, 0.285 CNY/W, and 0.31 CNY/W, respectively [3] - The Indian market still supports short-term demand, but prices for 183N battery cells have softened due to policy impacts and low-priced competition from domestic exporters [3] - The 210RN battery cell prices may decline further due to oversupply, potentially affecting silicon wafer prices [3] - The component market remains stable, with no significant changes in prices due to rising costs of raw materials and limited visibility for new orders [3]