印度央行原行长拉詹：关税引发的通胀效应尚未完全显现，断言美联储持续降息尚早

Core Viewpoint - Raghuram Rajan emphasizes that the inflation effects from tariffs have not fully manifested, and it is premature to assert that the Federal Reserve will continue to lower interest rates significantly in the near future [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The actual tariff rate in the U.S. has increased from approximately 3% to around 18%, and if two-thirds of these tariffs are passed on, inflation could rise by about one percentage point [3]. - There are indications that tariffs are being passed on, leading to rising commodity prices, but full pass-through will take time [3]. Group 2: Economic Uncertainty - The U.S. inflation rate has stabilized around 3% for the past two quarters, but there are concerns that policies from the Trump administration may significantly reduce immigration, potentially lowering demand and aiding in inflation reduction [3]. - Rajan argues that while reduced immigration may decrease supply, it also lowers demand, leading to a net effect that requires further observation before concluding that inflation is trending towards the 2% target [3]. Group 3: Labor Market and Economic Growth - There are worries regarding labor market data, with net job growth slowing, but it remains unclear if this will exert downward pressure on wage levels due to a shrinking labor supply [3]. - The Federal Reserve's actions to slow down interest rate cuts depend largely on economic performance, and despite trade uncertainties potentially suppressing investment, consumer resilience has exceeded expectations, particularly in AI investments [3].