Earnings Preview: First Guaranty Bancshares (FGBI) Q3 Earnings Expected to Decline

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for First Guaranty Bancshares (FGBI) due to lower revenues, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - First Guaranty Bancshares is expected to report a quarterly loss of $0.32 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of -390.9% [3]. - Revenues are projected to be $24.47 million, down 9.7% from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 3000% lower in the last 30 days, indicating a significant reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for First Guaranty Bancshares aligns with the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of 0% [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive or negative reading indicates the likely deviation of actual earnings from the consensus estimate, with predictive power being significant for positive readings only [9][10]. - First Guaranty Bancshares currently holds a Zacks Rank of 5, making it challenging to predict an earnings beat [12][13]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, the company was expected to post a loss of $0.20 per share but instead reported a loss of -$0.61, resulting in a surprise of -205.00% [14]. - Over the past four quarters, First Guaranty Bancshares has beaten consensus EPS estimates twice [15]. Industry Comparison - Renasant (RNST), a peer in the Southeast banking industry, is expected to report earnings per share of $0.79, indicating a year-over-year increase of +12.9% [19]. - Renasant's revenues are projected to be $266.1 million, up 20.8% from the previous year, with an Earnings ESP of +0.95% suggesting a likely earnings beat [20].