经济韧性显现，提高资金向实体传导效率

Core Insights - Economic resilience is evident, but pressures remain, necessitating further expansion of domestic demand policies to effectively stimulate real demand in manufacturing and services while improving the efficiency of financial support to the real economy [1] CPI: Sustained Recovery of Internal Momentum - The CPI for September increased from -0.4% to -0.3%, with a core CPI rising to 1.0%, the highest in 19 months, indicating a sustainable recovery in internal demand [4][2] - Prices of gold and platinum jewelry surged by 42.1% and 33.6% respectively, reflecting accelerated consumer demand [4] PPI: Gradual Recovery Expected - The PPI for September decreased by 2.3%, a reduction of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, with expectations of a potential positive turn in the first half of next year [7][5] - The recent implementation of anti-involution measures in key sectors like photovoltaics and new energy is showing positive effects on price governance [7] PMI: Need for Further Demand Stimulation - The manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8%, indicating slight improvement, but still reflects economic pressure with a widening supply-demand gap [11][8] - The production index's increase is attributed to the release of backlogged orders and exporters ramping up shipments [11] Fixed Asset Investment: Weak Performance - Fixed asset investment fell by 7.1% year-on-year in September, with significant declines in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate investments [14][12] - The real estate market remains weak, with a 10.5% drop in sales area and an 11.8% decrease in sales value [14] Credit: Steady Scale - New RMB loans increased by 1.29 trillion yuan in September, reflecting a seasonal uptick, with overall credit scale remaining stable [17][15] - Factors contributing to this include the implementation of new policy financial tools and improved corporate operating conditions [17] M2: Need for Improved Transmission Efficiency - M2 growth slowed to 8.4%, indicating insufficient credit generation and limited fiscal counteraction [20][18] - The structure of deposits shows a shift from fiscal departments back to residents and enterprises, highlighting the need for enhanced efficiency in transmitting funds to the real economy [20]