North star of equity markets remains profits this earnings, says Truist's Keith Lerner

Core Viewpoint - The current market rally is facing multiple concerns, including tariff frictions, credit issues, and questions surrounding the AI bubble and momentum stocks [1][2][3] Market Performance - Despite recent churning, forward earnings estimates for the overall market are moving higher, indicating that profits remain the key driver of the bull market [3][4] - The S&P 500 has been moving sideways for about a month, which may set the stage for a year-end rally [4] Sector Analysis - Defensive sectors like healthcare and utilities have shown better performance recently, while there are signs of speculative flows affecting stock prices [6][7] - The defining theme of the current bull market is still centered around AI and technology, with large-cap tech maintaining earnings momentum [8] Commodities Outlook - Oil prices are surging due to recent news from Russia, but the overall outlook for oil remains negative, while gold is viewed positively despite recent pullbacks [10][11] - Gold has reached a high relative to its trend since 2006, indicating a need for consolidation before further gains are expected [10][11] Economic Indicators - Upcoming CPI data may provide short-term market movement, but it is unlikely to change the overall outlook, as other factors like cooling rents and weaker job numbers may offset any inflation uptick [12][14][15]