技术路线图3.0，中国汽车2040年这么干

Core Insights - The article discusses the future of the Chinese automotive industry, projecting significant advancements in technology and market dynamics over the next 15 years, particularly focusing on the integration of electric and intelligent vehicles [2][4][5] Group 1: Market Projections - By 2040, approximately one-third of new passenger vehicles will still rely on internal combustion engines (ICE), while the penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is expected to exceed 85%, with battery electric vehicles (BEVs) making up 80% of that [2][7] - The Chinese automotive market is projected to reach a production and sales volume of over 31 million units in 2024, with NEVs experiencing rapid growth from under 1.4 million units in 2020 to nearly 13 million units in 2024, increasing their market share from 5.4% to over 40% [11][13] Group 2: Technological Developments - The "Technology Roadmap 3.0" outlines three major breakthroughs: extending the timeline to include long-term goals for 2040, enhancing the structural framework to cover energy-saving, new energy, and intelligent connected vehicles, and aligning industry development with global changes [4][5][6] - The roadmap specifies that by 2030, the average fuel consumption of hybrid vehicles will decrease to 4.5L/100km, and further to 3.5L by 2040, indicating a strong focus on energy efficiency [9][10] Group 3: Intelligent Vehicles - By 2030, L2 level assisted driving will be widely adopted in passenger vehicles, with L3 and L4 levels expected to be implemented in urban and highway scenarios, respectively [19][21] - By 2040, nearly all new intelligent connected vehicles are anticipated to achieve L4 level autonomous driving, with L5 level vehicles beginning to enter the market, indicating a significant shift towards fully autonomous driving capabilities [21][22] Group 4: Industry Transformation - The automotive industry is transitioning towards becoming mobile intelligent entities, with a focus on four core technological areas: intelligent chassis, electronic and electrical information architecture, automotive chips, and vehicle operating systems [22][26] - The roadmap emphasizes the importance of smart manufacturing, aiming for 40% of companies to reach the highest level of intelligent manufacturing by 2040, integrating various aspects of production and supply [26]