碳减排最多达九成 新型航空燃料直面高成本与低产能考验

Core Insights - The global aviation industry is entering the "SAF era," driven by policy initiatives and a significant expected increase in demand for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) [1][3][4] - The aviation sector is one of the hardest to decarbonize, with SAF being a viable alternative to traditional fuels, potentially reducing CO2 emissions by 69%-90% [2][3] - The European Union has set ambitious SAF blending targets, aiming for 2% by 2025, 6% by 2030, and 70% by 2050, which will significantly increase SAF demand [2][4] Industry Developments - China's SAF consumption is projected to exceed 20,000 tons this year, with various initiatives and policies being implemented to support the industry [3][5] - The establishment of the China Sustainable Aviation Fuel Industry Alliance and local government policies indicate a strong push towards SAF development [3][5] - Major airlines, including Cathay Pacific and China Eastern Airlines, are committing to increasing their SAF consumption as part of their ESG strategies [3][5] Market Dynamics - The price of SAF has surged, with European prices exceeding $2,700 per ton, driven by mandatory blending policies and rising raw material costs [4][9] - The competition for SAF production capacity is intensifying, with companies like Junheng Bio and Weili investing in large-scale SAF projects [5][6] - Current SAF production capacity in China is around 1 million tons, with expectations to double by 2026, although it remains insufficient to meet global demand [5][6] Raw Material and Cost Considerations - The primary feedstock for SAF production is waste cooking oil, with China's collection capacity limited to about 500,000 tons annually, which is insufficient for large-scale SAF production [6][8] - The average global cost of SAF is projected to be 4.2 times that of conventional jet fuel, raising concerns about its economic viability [8][9] - The high cost of SAF is a significant barrier to its adoption, with airlines facing pressure to balance sustainability goals with competitive pricing [9] Future Outlook - The diversification of raw materials for SAF production, including non-food biomass and green hydrogen, is expected to reshape the industry landscape [7][8] - The successful scaling of SAF production will depend on technological advancements and supportive government policies to lower costs and increase supply [9]