Everyone is waiting for Friday's big inflation report. Here's what to expect

Core Insights - The upcoming release of September's consumer price index (CPI) report is expected to be a significant market event due to the lack of recent economic data caused by the government shutdown [2][3] - Economists predict a monthly increase of 0.4% in the all-items CPI, maintaining a 12-month inflation rate of 3.1%, which is 0.2 percentage points higher than August [4] - The focus will be on any deviations in inflation readings and the impact of tariffs on prices, with expectations of upward pressure in certain categories [5][7] Economic Context - The CPI report is the last major economic reading before the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, where another interest rate cut is anticipated [6][10] - Despite the uncertainty from the government shutdown, the economy has shown resilience, with GDP tracking close to 4% for the third quarter [11] - Geopolitical uncertainties, particularly regarding tariffs, are raising concerns about potential impacts on economic growth [9] Market Reactions - Investors are currently experiencing volatility, with major stock market averages nearing record levels [8] - A higher-than-expected CPI number could lead to increased market volatility, but it may also present buying opportunities given the strong economic fundamentals [12]