Crude Oil Rallies on Possible US-India Trade Deal and Unexpected Draw in EIA Inventories

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices have risen sharply, reaching one-week highs, driven by a potential US-India trade deal that may reduce India's imports of Russian crude, thereby increasing demand from alternative suppliers [2] - The decline in weekly EIA crude inventories has further supported the upward movement in crude prices [2] Group 1: Price Movements - December WTI crude oil is up by 1.17 (+2.04%) and December RBOB gasoline is up by 0.0352 (+1.99%) [1] - Crude prices have received support from the announcement of the Trump administration's plans to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve by 1 million barrels in December and January [3] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Concerns about a global supply glut persist, with the IEA forecasting a record global oil surplus of 4.0 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2026 [3] - Cooling tensions in the Middle East have reduced risk premiums in crude prices, following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas [4] - A decrease in crude oil held on tankers, reported to have fallen by 12% week-over-week to 78.44 million barrels, is bullish for oil prices [4] Group 3: OPEC+ and Production - OPEC+ agreed to a 137,000 bpd increase in its crude production target starting in November, which was less than market expectations [5] - OPEC's September crude production rose by 400,000 bpd to 29.05 million bpd, the highest level in 2.5 years [5] Group 4: Geopolitical Factors - Reduced crude exports from Russia due to Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have limited Russia's crude export capabilities, with total seaborne fuel shipments dropping to 1.88 million bpd in early October, the lowest in over 3.25 years [6]