维持看涨！摩根大通预计金价明年底均价升至5055美元

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan analysts maintain a bullish stance on gold, predicting an average price of $5,055 per ounce by Q4 2026, based on an assumption of average quarterly investor demand and central bank purchases of 566 tons [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle is seen as a factor that will support gold prices [1][3]. - Concerns about stagflation, the independence of the Federal Reserve, and currency devaluation risks create a favorable environment for gold [1][3]. - Recent price consolidation in gold is viewed as a healthy phenomenon, reflecting market digestion of rapid gains since August [1][5]. Group 2: Long-term Demand Drivers - A trend of "de-dollarization" is prompting some overseas investors to shift from dollar assets to gold, with potential price increases if the allocation to gold rises [2][3]. - Central banks are expected to maintain strong gold purchasing rates, averaging 566 tons quarterly over the next two years [2][3]. Group 3: Institutional Outlook - JPMorgan's price target is among the most optimistic, with other institutions like HSBC, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs forecasting lower targets for gold prices by the end of 2026 [4]. - The consensus among institutions highlights that rate cut expectations and central bank buying will be key drivers in the next two years [4][5]. Group 4: Price Performance - Gold has risen over 50% this year, and while short-term volatility is expected, it is considered part of a bull market's phase of consolidation [5][6]. - Investor risk appetite, dollar performance, and U.S. bond yield changes are identified as primary variables influencing future gold prices [5][6].