日本通胀又抬头！新首相高市早苗上任即迎首道考题

Core Insights - Japan's core inflation rate accelerated to 2.9% in September, up from 2.7% in August, marking the first increase in four months, which poses governance challenges for the new Prime Minister, Kishi Matsumoto [1][4] - The inflation data aligns with economists' expectations, indicating that last year's substantial utility subsidies have contributed to this year's inflation figures [1][4] Inflation Data - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding fresh food rose by 2.9% year-on-year in September, consistent with economists' median forecasts [1][4] - Energy prices increased by 2.3% year-on-year, reversing a decline of 3.3% in August, while the government implemented utility subsidies to help households cope with the summer heat [4][5] - Rice prices, a significant contributor to inflation, saw a year-on-year increase of 49.2%, down from 69.7% in August, indicating a slowdown in inflationary pressure [4][6] Economic Policy Implications - The inflation report supports Prime Minister Kishi Matsumoto's focus on addressing the cost of living crisis as a top priority [4][6] - Economists predict that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will maintain its current policy rate in the upcoming meeting, with potential rate hikes expected in December or January [5][6] - The BOJ faces challenges in tightening monetary policy due to persistent price pressures, despite a cautious approach to avoid premature tightening [5][6] Future Outlook - A core inflation indicator, excluding energy prices, rose by 3.0%, showing a slight slowdown from 3.3% [5] - Service prices, a key component of sustainable inflation, increased by 1.4% year-on-year, slightly down from the previous month [5] - The potential for further declines in core inflation is suggested as rice price increases have peaked [6]