日本央行为何对加息如此谨慎？白川方明谈潜在原因

Core Viewpoint - Japan's central bank maintains a cautious stance on interest rate hikes due to low core inflation and uncertainties stemming from external factors like tariffs [1][3][4] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The current core inflation rate in Japan is reported at 2.7%, while the policy interest rate is only 0.5%, indicating a significant gap [4] - The former Bank of Japan governor, Shirakawa, emphasizes that the central bank's hesitance is largely due to potential negative reactions in the financial markets [3] - Concerns about accumulated risks in the financial system, which have persisted under a zero interest rate policy for the past 30 years, contribute to the cautious approach [3] Group 2: Economic Context - Shirakawa argues that Japan's prolonged economic stagnation is not solely due to deflation but is fundamentally linked to a declining population and the economy's adaptation to globalization and technological changes [4] - He suggests that Japan's GDP growth per capita has actually outpaced that of the United States, challenging the narrative that deflation is the primary issue [4] - The advice given to China is to focus on supply-side solutions rather than relying on monetary easing strategies [4]