多家石油贸易商预测：地缘政治风险溢价消退或致油价下跌

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are expected to decline this year and early next year as geopolitical risk premiums decrease, with Brent crude potentially falling to the low $50s per barrel during the holiday season, before recovering to around $65 per barrel by the second half of next year [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Despite expectations of an oversupply in the oil market by 2025, this situation has not yet materialized, with strong short-term demand indicated by the persistent "contango" in the market [2]. - As of October 13, Brent crude spot prices were assessed at $64.23 per barrel, significantly down from over $80 per barrel in January [2]. - Key factors contributing to market resilience include geopolitical "panic factors" from conflicts in the Middle East and Europe, as well as low oil inventories in developed countries [2]. Group 2: China's Role - China is seen as an exception in the oil market, with ongoing strategic oil reserve accumulation providing support [3]. - Although oil inventories in Western developed countries remain low, surplus crude is primarily flowing to China, which may serve as a "floating storage" for unsold oil from Iran and Venezuela [3]. - Demand for gasoline and diesel in China has plateaued, influenced by the trend towards electrification, despite growth in petrochemical demand [3]. Group 3: Supply Trends - Oil prices are currently in a downward trend, with more crude entering the market in the second half of the year due to steady increases in OPEC+ production and rising output from non-OPEC countries like Guyana, Norway, and Brazil [4]. - Since April, OPEC+ has announced multiple rounds of production increases [4]. Group 4: Risk Premiums - The oil market has been characterized by geopolitical risk premiums throughout the year, but these premiums are gradually dissipating as the market's ability to cope with geopolitical shocks improves [5]. - Recent developments, such as a peace agreement between Israel and Hamas, have not fully resolved ongoing conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine situation, which continues to impact energy markets [5][6]. - There is a possibility that the market may be underestimating the likelihood of sudden supply disruptions from key oil-producing countries like Iran, Venezuela, and Russia, which are currently facing unstable conditions [7].