洽洽食品(002557)：收入利润短期承压 关注新采购季瓜子价格

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q3 2025, indicating challenges in profitability and cost management [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached 1.749 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.91% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 79 million, down 72.58% year-on-year [1] - The non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders was 71 million, a decline of 74.00% year-on-year [1] Cost and Margin Analysis - Gross margin for Q3 2025 was 24.52%, a decrease of 8.59 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising raw material prices [2] - The expense ratio increased to 17.50%, up 4.02 percentage points year-on-year, with sales expense ratio at 10.15% (+2.29 percentage points), management expense ratio at 4.53% (+0.58 percentage points), R&D expense ratio at 1.28% (+0.44 percentage points), and financial expense ratio at 1.55% (+0.71 percentage points) [2] Profitability Outlook - The net profit margin for Q3 2025 was 4.54%, down 11.03 percentage points year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit margin was 4.08%, a decrease of 10.69 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company is focusing on product innovation and brand marketing, with expectations of improved profitability due to anticipated decreases in raw material prices in the new procurement season [2] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 6.947 billion, 7.589 billion, and 8.313 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of -2.58%, 9.23%, and 9.54% respectively [3] - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are 528 million, 753 million, and 872 million, with year-on-year growth rates of -37.88%, 42.77%, and 15.76% respectively [3] - Corresponding PE ratios for 2025-2027 are projected at 20.6, 14.4, and 12.5 [3]