智通财经网·2025-10-24 02:47Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that the strong revenue and profit growth of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) is expected to continue until 2025, driven by a robust average daily trading volume (ADV) of HKD 286 billion and high liquidity [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3, HKEX's trading fees and clearing fees increased by 75% and 97% year-on-year, respectively, indicating sustained strong growth in core business [1] - Revenue and profit for HKEX are projected to grow by 47% and 59% year-on-year, respectively, in Q3 2025, with EBITDA margin expected to increase by 7 percentage points to 80% [1] Group 2: Investment Income - Morgan Stanley anticipates a potential decrease in HKEX's net investment income due to a high base from Q2 foreign exchange gains and the ongoing low interest rate environment, estimating a 22% quarter-on-quarter decline in Q3 2025 [1] - The net investment income forecasts for FY 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been slightly adjusted downwards by 0.2%, 5.5%, and 5.6%, respectively, to account for new margin guarantee arrangements effective from Q4 2025 [2] Group 3: Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for HKEX in 2025 has been raised by 5.8%, with a projected year-on-year growth of 32%, while the EPS for 2026 and 2027 is expected to remain relatively unchanged [2] - A decline of 18% in net investment income is anticipated for 2026, followed by a 4.3% decrease in 2027, influenced by expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2]