拉尼娜现象出现概率上升，短期天然气市场或受扰动

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the probability of a La Niña phenomenon occurring from October to December 2025 has risen to over 75%, which may lead to significant temperature fluctuations during winter in the Northern Hemisphere [2][3] - The report highlights that the sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific have remained below normal, around -0.5 degrees, confirming the La Niña indicators [3] - It is noted that while La Niña typically results in colder winters in the Northern Hemisphere, other factors such as the strength of East Asian winter winds and Arctic sea ice levels may influence the actual winter temperatures [3] Group 2 - In mid-October, a significant drop in temperatures was observed in Northern China, with many areas officially entering winter earlier than the average date, leading to a temperature decrease of over 10 degrees [4] - The demand for coal in the power generation sector has increased due to winter storage procurement, with average daily coal consumption rising by 12.5% from the previous week [4] - The report mentions that as of October 14, the EU's natural gas storage level was at 83.09%, which is 13.05% lower than the same period last year, indicating a potential rise in natural gas prices if a cold winter occurs [4] Group 3 - The long-term outlook for the LNG market suggests a gradual easing of supply and demand, with global LNG liquefaction capacity expected to grow rapidly from 2025 to 2029, particularly in North America [5] - The report anticipates that the price differentials between Asian, European, and North American natural gas markets may narrow, leading to a downward trend in gas prices [5] - The report identifies that the breakeven point for major U.S. natural gas wells is primarily in the range of $2.5 to $3.0 per MMBtu, which may serve as a support line for long-term prices at Henry Hub [5] Group 4 - The report suggests that the increased probability of La Niña may lead to a cold winter, which could elevate natural gas prices in Europe, prompting a focus on upstream natural gas production-related investments [6] - It also indicates that as the global LNG market gradually balances, the price centers in Asia and Europe are expected to decline, benefiting downstream natural gas sales and potentially increasing the penetration rate of natural gas in industrial energy consumption [6]