“全球资产定价之锚”来到临界点! 若9月CPI超预期 “股债双牛”叙事将遭遇重击

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. inflation data, particularly the September CPI, is critical as it may disrupt the prevailing market consensus on interest rate cuts, especially if the data shows unexpected increases in inflation [1][2][5]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics - The U.S. Treasury market has seen a strong rally in October, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping below 4% for the first time in six months, reaching a low of 3.9%, indicating a significant rebound in Treasury prices [1][3]. - The overall return of U.S. Treasuries in October is approximately 1.3%, potentially marking the best monthly performance since February, driven by safe-haven buying and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [5][10]. - If the September CPI data exceeds market expectations, it could lead to a sharp increase in Treasury yields, negatively impacting both the stock and bond markets [3][10]. Group 2: Inflation Expectations and Market Reactions - Economists predict that the overall CPI will show a month-over-month increase of 0.4%, with core CPI expected to rise by 0.3%, leading to a year-over-year growth of 3.1%, the highest since May 2024 [8][9]. - There is a prevailing concern that higher-than-expected inflation data could undermine the market's confidence in future rate cuts, creating significant downward risks for recent gains in the stock and bond markets [2][14]. - Market participants are increasingly anxious about the quality of U.S. economic data, which could lead to skepticism regarding the reliability of inflation figures released during the government shutdown [10][14]. Group 3: Impact on Equity Markets - The 10-year Treasury yield serves as a critical benchmark for asset pricing, and a rise in yields due to higher inflation could lead to a significant downturn in global equity markets [3][4]. - The ongoing AI investment boom, driven by major tech companies, has contributed to the S&P 500 and MSCI global indices reaching new highs, but elevated Treasury yields could pressure valuations of risk assets, including tech stocks [4][5]. - If the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4% and continues to decline, it could support a bullish trend in global equity markets, particularly benefiting technology stocks closely tied to AI [3][4].