场景拓展打开增量空间，龙头引领固态技术升级

Core Insights - The report highlights the steady growth in global electric vehicle sales, with commercial vehicle electrification emerging as a new growth point, and rapid expansion in the engineering machinery market, alongside a significant increase in global ship battery shipments and high domestic penetration rates for ship electrification [1] Investment Highlights - Scenario Expansion: The demand for lithium battery applications is rapidly expanding into diverse fields such as electric two-wheelers, low-altitude economy, robotics, and RVs. In the first half of 2025, domestic electric two-wheeler lithium battery sales are expected to surge over 40% year-on-year, with industrial and consumer-grade drone lithium batteries also experiencing rapid growth, projected to achieve a CAGR of 18.08% from 2025 to 2030. Global robot shipments are expected to grow by over 39% year-on-year in 2024, and RV lithium battery sales are projected to see a CAGR of 8.55% from 2025 to 2031 [2] - Technology Upgrade: Attention is drawn to leading companies accelerating the industrialization of solid-state batteries, with a continuous increase in patent applications for solid-state batteries in China, where leading firms hold a significant number of patents and have clear mass production plans [2] - Cycle: The report notes a price recovery and improvement in profitability, with cell prices rebounding and operating rates increasing. Since 2025, cell prices have gradually bottomed out, and the overall operating rate of energy storage battery companies in the first half of 2025 is expected to maintain above 50%, significantly exceeding previous years and showing a gradual upward trend [2] Storage and Power Battery Growth - Storage: The report emphasizes the rapid growth of distributed energy storage, with lithium iron phosphate batteries being the primary technology route in electrochemical storage. Global energy storage batteries are mainly used for centralized storage, with distributed storage growing rapidly. China has the largest installed capacity for energy storage, with the strongest growth. Demand for storage batteries is expected to reach 1384.00 GWh by 2028, with a CAGR of 39.07% from 2024 to 2028, and the share of distributed storage is expected to rise to 40.02% by 2028 [3] - Power: The focus is on the electrification of commercial vehicles, engineering machinery, and ships, with global electric vehicle sales steadily increasing. The report anticipates that power battery shipments will reach 2859.62 GWh by 2028, with a CAGR of 26.91% from 2024 to 2028, driven by rapid growth in light-duty, engineering machinery, and ship power batteries [3] - Consumer: The global consumer battery market is characterized by significant technological drivers, diverse application demands, and favorable policy environments. Total consumer battery shipments are projected to reach 55.13 billion units by 2029, with a CAGR of approximately 25.54% from 2023 to 2029, primarily driven by the continuous development of downstream industries such as medical devices and automotive electronics, as well as the rise of emerging fields like the low-altitude economy [3] Market Structure - The report indicates that the market landscape is stabilizing, with resources concentrating towards leading companies, while second-tier firms seek differentiated competition. The market share of leading global power battery companies remains stable, while the second tier is growing rapidly, leading to a decline in industry concentration [4] - The report notes that the highest costs are associated with positive electrodes, with lithium iron phosphate shipments dominating. The share of artificial graphite in negative electrodes is high, and silicon negative electrode shipments are expected to break through [5] - The report highlights that the electrolyte market faces significant overcapacity issues, with an oligopoly effect becoming apparent, and emphasizes the importance of monitoring the impact of internal competition [5] - The report also mentions that the market for separators is becoming increasingly concentrated, with leading companies benefiting from cost control and technological upgrades to enhance profitability [5] - The report concludes that the manufacturing equipment competition landscape is clear, with domestic manufacturers possessing global competitiveness, and emphasizes the importance of R&D efforts and technological upgrades among domestic companies [5]