金融属性+供弱需强，银价中枢上行

Core Insights - The global silver market is experiencing a supply-demand gap, with a projected deficit of 4,633 tons in 2024 and an expected shortfall of 3,660 tons in 2025, primarily driven by increased demand from the photovoltaic sector [1][3] - Silver supply is concentrated and shows a declining trend, with global silver mine production expected to decrease from 274,000 tons in 2014 to 252,000 tons in 2024 [2] - Investment demand for silver is being catalyzed by rising geopolitical tensions, enhancing its appeal as a safe-haven asset alongside industrial demand [3][4] Industry Overview - The global silver supply is projected at 31,574 tons and demand at 36,207 tons for 2024, indicating a persistent supply shortage since 2021 [1][3] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for silver demand in photovoltaic applications from 2014 to 2024 is estimated at 15.09%, with 6,147 tons of silver expected to be used in this sector in 2024 [1][3] - Silver mine production is forecasted to decline, with Mexico accounting for 23% of global output, while recycled silver supply is growing at a CAGR of 3.4% from 2019 to 2024 [2] Price Dynamics - Silver's unique dual attributes as both an industrial and financial asset contribute to its price volatility, with expectations of price increases driven by a combination of weak supply and strong demand [4][5] - Anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in late 2025 could further support silver prices, alongside a recovery in industrial demand [4] Investment Recommendations - Companies such as Shengda Resources are highlighted for their potential growth in silver reserves and production, driven by ongoing projects [5] - Xinyi Silver Tin is noted for its significant silver resource holdings and ongoing expansion projects, which are expected to boost future production [5]