Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang·2025-10-24 03:40Core Insights - The global aviation industry is entering the "SAF era," driven by policy changes and increasing demand for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) [1][2][5] - The SAF market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected supply-demand gap exceeding 26 million tons from 2030 to 2035, leading to a market size in the thousands of billions of yuan [1][2] - SAF can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 69% to 90% compared to traditional fuels, making it a viable path for the aviation industry's decarbonization efforts [2][5] Industry Developments - The European Union has mandated that by 2030, 6% of fuel used in flights from its airports must be SAF, with a target of 70% by 2050 [2][3] - China's SAF consumption is projected to exceed 20,000 tons this year, with various initiatives and policies being implemented to support the industry [3][6] - Major Chinese airlines are beginning to incorporate SAF into their operations, with commitments to increase SAF usage significantly by 2030 [3][6] Market Dynamics - The price of SAF has surged, with recent figures exceeding $2,700 per ton, driven by regulatory requirements and rising raw material costs [4][10] - The competition for SAF production capacity is intensifying, with numerous companies launching projects to meet the growing demand [6][7] - The current collection of waste cooking oil in China is limited to about 5 million tons annually, which is insufficient to meet future SAF demand [8][9] Challenges and Opportunities - The high cost of SAF production remains a significant barrier to widespread adoption, with estimates suggesting that SAF could be 4.2 times more expensive than conventional jet fuel [9][10] - Companies are exploring diverse raw materials for SAF production to enhance supply and reduce costs, including non-food biomass and green hydrogen [8][9] - The industry is witnessing a shift in production locations, with potential growth in regions rich in agricultural waste and renewable resources [9]