Ariel Focus Fund Q3 2025 Commentary

Market Overview - U.S. equities saw significant gains in Q3, driven by the Federal Reserve's first rate cut of the year, strong corporate earnings growth, and increased market participation [2] - Investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence contributed to substantial gains in technology stocks, particularly among the "Magnificent Seven" [2] - Small-cap stocks outperformed as capital shifted into undervalued market segments, despite ongoing concerns about tariffs, inflation, and labor market softness [2] Company Highlights - Resideo Technologies, Inc. (REZI) was the top contributor in Q3, with organic revenue, EBITDA, and adjusted EPS exceeding expectations, and a positive outlook supported by demand for smart home solutions [3] - Barrick Mining Corporation (B) experienced a rise in shares due to strong financial results and rising gold prices, alongside a strategic divestiture of its Hemlo Gold Mine for $1.09 billion [4] - ZimVie, Inc. (ZIMV) advanced following an announcement of its acquisition by ARCHIMED, expected to close by year-end [5] - Mosaic Co. (MOS) was the biggest detractor from performance due to an earnings miss, with pressures from lower volumes and rising production costs, although phosphate markets are expected to remain tight through 2025 [6] - Prestige Consumer Healthcare Inc. (PBH) declined after mixed earnings results and a downward revision to guidance, but plans to strengthen supply through an acquisition of Pillar5 [7] - Schlumberger Limited (SLB) traded lower due to a challenging macroeconomic environment, with pressures from OPEC+ supply increases and geopolitical uncertainty impacting oil prices [8] New Positions and Exits - New positions included Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG), which faced pressure due to a delay in closing its $13.4 billion acquisition of AssuredPartners, but is expected to benefit from stronger synergies [10] - Fiserv, Inc. (FI) was also purchased, seen as a leading provider of payment processing and financial services technology, with a recent stock pullback providing an attractive entry point [11] - Exited positions included ZimVie, Inc., Core Laboratories, Inc. (CLB), and Bio-Rad Laboratories Inc. (BIO) to pursue more compelling opportunities [12] Economic Outlook - As Q4 approaches, U.S. markets are balancing elevated valuations against emerging macroeconomic headwinds, with the Federal Reserve's rate cut providing some support [13] - Investor sentiment remains positive, driven by AI momentum, although risks related to market concentration and policy uncertainty may lead to increased volatility [14] - There is a belief that small-cap equities may outperform large caps over the next two years, with small caps trading at historically attractive levels [14]