美国彼得森国际经济研究所杰弗里·肖特：全球贸易体系面临两大核心挑战｜2025外滩年会

Core Insights - The 2025 Bund Summit will be held from October 23 to 25 in Huangpu District, Shanghai, focusing on the theme "Embracing Change: New Order, New Technology" [1] Group 1: Global Trade Dynamics - Jeffrey J. Schott, a senior researcher at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, emphasized the importance of "trust" and "enforcement" in the global trade system, which he views as core challenges [3] - Schott highlighted that the stability of U.S.-China relations and the multilateral trade mechanism relies on predictable policies and ongoing dialogue [3][4] - He noted that uncertainty in bilateral relations increases operational costs for businesses and creates political risks, advocating for a reduction in uncertainty to facilitate normal trade and investment [5] Group 2: U.S.-China Relations - Schott stated that restoring basic trust is essential for resolving U.S.-China trade tensions, which he believes is a long-term process [5] - He pointed out that even in areas of significant disagreement, communication should be maintained due to the profound impact that policy changes from either country can have on the global economy [3][5] - Schott expressed skepticism about the U.S. rejoining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) in the short term [5] Group 3: Multilateral Trade Agreements - Schott described the CPTPP as a beneficial complement to the World Trade Organization (WTO) rather than a replacement, noting that the U.S. withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was a mistake [5] - He mentioned that China's potential accession to the CPTPP would be a cautious and gradual process, with limited short-term progress expected [5] Group 4: WTO and Sanctions - Schott denied claims of WTO marginalization, asserting that it still plays a crucial role but requires updates to reflect contemporary technological and trade dynamics [6] - He differentiated between the quantity of sanctions and their policy impact, stating that current sanctions do not significantly threaten the dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency [6] - Schott warned that long-term instability in U.S. domestic economic policy could lead to questions about the future of the dollar, similar to the historical decline of the pound [6] Group 5: Service Trade - Schott criticized the U.S. public discourse for often overlooking the significant contributions of service trade, which he considers a vital component of modern globalization [7]