Albertsons Companies, Inc. (ACI): A Bull Case Theory

Core Thesis - Albertsons Companies, Inc. (ACI) is viewed as a compelling defensive investment opportunity in a high-priced market, currently trading at $17.35, with attractive valuation metrics compared to peers like Kroger and Weis [2][5] Valuation Metrics - ACI's trailing and forward P/E ratios are 10.58 and 8.26 respectively, indicating a lower valuation compared to competitors [1] - The company is trading below 11x 2024 earnings and has an EV/Sales ratio of 0.2, making it attractively valued [2] Catalysts for Upside - The failed acquisition by Kroger resulted in a potential $600 million breakup fee, equating to roughly 6% of ACI's stock price, providing immediate value to shareholders [3] - An authorized share repurchase program of up to $2 billion, representing around 20% of outstanding shares, has already seen 14.2 million shares repurchased at $22 for $314.8 million, with potential for accelerated repurchases at current lower prices [3] - The decline in 2024 earnings to $1.64 from $2.23 in 2023 is attributed to one-time costs from the failed merger, suggesting normalized earnings could support a fair value of $28–$30 per share, indicating over 60% upside [4] Additional Upside Factors - Potential for further upside from the breakup fee, additional share repurchases, operational leverage post-merger costs, and strategic interest as identified by Goldman Sachs, which lists Albertsons as a top M&A candidate with a 15–30% probability [5] - The combination of these factors positions Albertsons as an undervalued, cash-generative, and defensive investment with multiple levers for significant shareholder returns [5]