下周一，油价或下调

Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail price of refined oil is expected to decrease significantly, marking the ninth reduction this year, with a predicted drop of approximately 300 yuan/ton for both gasoline and diesel [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Adjustment Expectations - The new round of domestic refined oil retail price adjustments is set to occur on October 27, with expectations of a reduction exceeding 50 yuan/ton [1]. - The current reference crude oil price change rate is at -6.93%, indicating a strong likelihood of price reductions for gasoline and diesel [2]. - Analysts predict that the price of 92 gasoline and 0 diesel will decrease by 0.24 yuan/liter and 0.26 yuan/liter, respectively [2]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The international crude oil prices have shown a mixed trend, initially declining and then rebounding slightly due to geopolitical tensions in Europe and decreasing U.S. oil inventories [2][5]. - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with a weak demand for oil and a stable supply contributing to the downward pressure on prices [5]. - The average market price for 92 gasoline is currently 7418 yuan/ton, down 3.18% from the previous pricing cycle, while diesel is at 6451 yuan/ton, down 1.78% [5]. Group 3: Historical Context - Since 2025, there have been 20 rounds of price adjustments, with the current trend showing six increases, eight decreases, and six instances of no change [3]. - The cumulative price drop for gasoline and diesel since the end of last year is 480 yuan/ton and 460 yuan/ton, respectively [3][4].