地缘局势不稳 预计燃料油盘面短期跟随原油波动

Core Viewpoint - Fuel oil futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 2776.00 yuan, closing at 2815.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 3.19% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Newhu Futures anticipates a pullback in fuel oil prices, with a slight rebound expected in the low-high sulfur price spread [1] - The recent attack on Bashneft refinery in Ukraine may lead to a decrease in exports, impacting November supply [1] - Southeast Asia's high sulfur import volume increased by 600,000 tons month-on-month [1] Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Trump's consideration of "land-based" strikes against Venezuela has weakened the light-heavy crude oil price spread [1] - Upcoming trade negotiations between China and the U.S. in Malaysia may influence market dynamics [1] - New sanctions from the U.S. and EU against Russia could lead to a rebound in oil prices [1] Group 3: Inventory and Production Insights - Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 8.1%, while ARA inventory fell by 4.6%, and Fujairah's inventory rose by 38.9% [1] - U.S. residual fuel oil inventory increased by 2.4%, with U.S. refinery utilization rates rising by 2.9% and China's coking utilization rates declining by 1.3% [1] Group 4: Short-term Outlook - Overall, the domestic fuel oil fundamentals are improving alongside rising crude oil prices, but global trade tensions may limit upward potential [1] - Technically, the LU main contract rose by 1.48% in the night session, while the FU main contract increased by 3.08%, indicating a short-term correlation with crude oil fluctuations [1]