广发基金投顾团队：黄金高位震荡，有色金属细分品种走势分化

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown strong performance this year, with the index rising over 70% year-to-date, but there is increasing internal differentiation among sub-sectors, particularly in precious metals like gold and silver, which are experiencing high-level fluctuations [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of October 23, the non-ferrous metals (CITIC) index has gained over 70% this year, attracting market attention [1] - The performance of precious metals has been under pressure due to geopolitical changes and profit-taking, while industrial and rare metals show relative resilience [1] - The market trend can be divided into three phases: initial strength in precious metals due to risk aversion from tariffs, followed by valuation recovery in industrial and rare metals, and finally a divergence in driving logic among the sub-sectors [1] Group 2: Sub-sector Analysis - Precious metals (gold, silver) are linked to global political and economic situations and tend to strengthen during periods of uncertainty [1] - Industrial metals (copper, lead, zinc, aluminum) are driven by cyclical factors and primarily influenced by unexpected changes in supply and demand [1] - Rare metals (such as rare earths) are critical for high-end manufacturing, facing short-term supply-demand mismatches but benefiting from technological advancements in the long term [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The analysis indicates that gold's recent fluctuations are due to easing geopolitical tensions and profit-taking, but it still holds asset allocation value in the medium to long term [2] - Silver has faced a pullback after a previous surge, with its future performance remaining uncertain and closely tied to geopolitical and Federal Reserve developments [2] - Copper is currently in a "double weakness" situation regarding supply and demand, with production disruptions and global economic slowdown affecting its outlook [2] - Rare earths are expected to perform strongly, particularly in the context of U.S.-China trade policies and export control expectations [2] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The non-ferrous metals sector may still present structural investment opportunities, but differentiation among varieties will continue [2] - Investors are advised to closely monitor geopolitical developments, Federal Reserve policies, and changes in supply-demand fundamentals to identify investment opportunities in specific sub-sectors [2]