蔡昉：养老三支柱不是“三足鼎立”|直击外滩年会

Core Viewpoint - The current pension system in China requires exploration of new insurance models, emphasizing the importance of including urban and rural residents in discussions about pension reforms [1][2]. Group 1: Current Pension Landscape - Over 50% of pension recipients are receiving urban and rural resident pension insurance, indicating a need to include this demographic in pension reform discussions [2]. - There are over 300 million private laborers and individual workers, along with more than 200 million flexible employment individuals, who have low pension insurance coverage [2]. - The rise of digital economy and flexible employment is leading to a shift in traditional employment patterns, necessitating new approaches to pension coverage [2]. Group 2: Structural Insights - The status of the resident pension insurance system should be a key criterion for evaluating the first pillar of the pension system [4]. - The three pillars of pension insurance should not be viewed as equal or independent; rather, the first pillar is foundational, and without it, the second and third pillars cannot effectively function [4]. - The development of artificial intelligence is expected to bring revolutionary changes, necessitating a rethinking of pension insurance models and the establishment of effective sharing mechanisms for productivity gains [4].