Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS): A Bull Case Theory

Group 1 - Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) is a key player in AI infrastructure, providing full-stack solutions that include land acquisition, power, data center construction, GPU deployment, software layers, and operational support [2] - The company has established credibility through a significant agreement with Microsoft, which demonstrates real demand and supports its funding cycle for expansion [3] - Nebius's strategy involves leveraging talent from ex-Yandex engineers and maintaining tight control over its full-stack infrastructure, which attracts top-tier customers and reinforces market confidence [3] Group 2 - The core AI infrastructure segment is expected to deliver 20-30% free cash flow margins, with GPU payback periods under 2.5 years, indicating strong risk-adjusted returns [4] - Long-term demand for AI training and inference is projected to grow exponentially, primarily driven by AI adoption, with constraints mainly related to power availability [4] - The company is currently valued at approximately $30 billion, with potential upside to $40-50 billion if additional large-scale contracts are secured [5] Group 3 - Nebius Group's stock price has appreciated approximately 460% since earlier coverage, reflecting market recognition of its execution and scale [6] - The bullish thesis emphasizes the importance of full-stack AI infrastructure, Microsoft validation, and the funding-capacity-demand loop as key growth drivers [6]