产地减产季在即 预计棕榈油期货盘面仍然有韧性

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures are experiencing slight upward movement, with the main contract reported at 9140.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a minor increase of 0.29% [1] Group 1: Market Developments - Indonesia plans to implement a mandatory 10% bioethanol blending in gasoline by 2027, aiming to enhance energy self-sufficiency through increased use of palm oil and sugarcane-based biofuels [2] - Citigroup analyst Gan Huan Wen indicated that Indonesia's B50 biodiesel blending policy, initially set for 2026, may be delayed to 2027 due to funding constraints and unfavorable palm oil-diesel price differentials [2] - On October 23, the trading volume of 24-degree palm oil at national ports reached 3600 tons, marking a 44.00% increase compared to the previous trading day [2] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Guoyuan Futures noted that both supply and demand for palm oil are increasing in the short term, with the Indonesian B50 plan still being actively pursued, leading to a mixed market outlook for palm oil [3] - Guotou Anxin Futures stated that the fourth quarter marks the beginning of the palm oil production reduction cycle, which will significantly influence prices. If supply decreases rapidly, palm oil prices may show resilience; however, if the supply reduction is slow, caution is advised regarding potential price declines [3] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association projected a 10.77% increase in palm oil production for Malaysia from October 1-20, with high-frequency data indicating a significant increase in supply [3]