Badger Meter, Inc. (BMI): A Bull Case Theory

Core Thesis - Badger Meter, Inc. (BMI) is positioned as a stable, growth-oriented investment with a strong dividend history and operational efficiency, making it attractive for long-term investors [2][5]. Financial Performance - BMI's revenue for 2024 is projected to be flat at $826.6 million, while net income is expected to rise by 31%, driven by operational efficiency and margin expansion [3]. - The company has a trailing P/E of 39.16 and a forward P/E of 34.13, indicating a premium valuation relative to earnings [1]. Dividend Growth - BMI has increased its dividend for 33 consecutive years, with recent hikes of 18% in August 2025, 26% in 2024, and 18% in 2023, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [2]. - The current dividend yield is approximately 0.9%, supported by a conservative payout ratio of 31% [2]. Business Model and Market Position - BMI's business model is characterized by essential, recurring revenue, with 85% of sales derived from mandatory replacements in water measurement [4]. - The company has a growing SaaS segment that has expanded by 28% annually since 2019, contributing about 7% of total sales [4]. Market Opportunities - The U.S. smart water market, along with regulatory mandates and strategic acquisitions like SmartCover, is expected to support high single-digit sales growth and margin expansion [5]. - The global water technology market exceeds $100 billion, providing significant growth potential for BMI [5]. Investor Confidence - Institutional ownership stands at approximately 89%, indicating strong confidence from major investors such as BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street [3]. - Analysts generally rate BMI as a Buy to Strong Buy, with a 12-month price target of $237, suggesting an upside of around 33% from current levels [5].