煤炭板块持续保持强势，关注全市场唯一煤炭ETF（515220）

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector remains strong, with the coal ETF (515220) opening against the trend and stabilizing, closing up by 2.46% [1] Supply Side Summary - In September, the output of industrial raw coal from large-scale enterprises was 410 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, but a month-on-month increase of 5.1%, with an average daily output of 13.72 million tons. From January to September, the total output was 3.57 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.0% [4] - The National Energy Administration has initiated a coal mine production inspection in eight key coal-producing provinces to ensure stable coal supply, which has led to a noticeable decline in coal production since July and August [4] - Extreme weather has disrupted production in key areas like Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia, with daily rainfall exceeding 100mm in some regions, affecting coal mining and transportation [4] Demand Side Summary - Since October, high temperatures in southern regions have led to a significant increase in coal demand, while northern areas have experienced rapid cooling, contributing to a seasonal spike in coal prices [6] - In September, due to an imbalance in domestic coal supply and demand, coal imports increased, but this trend weakened in October, with a 14.4% decrease in coal shipments to China compared to the same period in September [6] Price Summary - As of October 17, 2025, the price of Q5500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 748 yuan per ton, a week-on-week increase of 43 yuan per ton, with an average price of 721 yuan per ton since Q4 2025, reflecting a 7.2% increase [8] Market Outlook - The coal market is expected to remain resilient due to ongoing demand increases in winter and supply-side disruptions that are unlikely to be resolved in the short term, indicating a stable improvement in the coal sector's fundamentals. Investors are encouraged to pay attention to the coal ETF (515220) [10]