黄金牛市叙事再强化! 这次美国政府停摆大概率乃史上最久 市场押注关门到11月中旬

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has entered its fourth week with no signs of resolution, potentially becoming the longest in U.S. history, while the stock market remains largely unaffected, and gold prices are expected to continue rising due to the shutdown's implications [1][2][5]. Government Shutdown Duration - The U.S. federal government shut down on October 1, and predictions indicate it may surpass the previous record of 35 days set during Trump's first term, with current estimates suggesting it could last until November 16 or later [1][2][4]. Market Reactions - Despite the shutdown, the U.S. stock market is focused on the earnings season, with investors optimistic about strong earnings reports driving continued market growth [5]. - The shutdown has had minimal impact on the stock market, overshadowed by the anticipation of earnings from major tech companies and ongoing AI investment trends [5]. Gold Market Implications - The shutdown is seen as a significant catalyst for the gold market, with potential economic losses estimated at $15 billion per week, which could enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [6][7]. - The expectation of prolonged uncertainty due to the shutdown, combined with geopolitical tensions and central bank gold purchases, is likely to increase demand for gold [7]. - Major financial institutions have raised their gold price forecasts significantly, with Goldman Sachs predicting prices could reach $4,900 per ounce by December 2026, and Bank of America suggesting a potential rise to $6,000 by spring next year [7].