Itron, Inc. (ITRI): A Bull Case Theory

Core Thesis - Itron, Inc. is positioned to benefit from a generational replacement cycle in metering solutions, with a strong market share in electricity, gas, and water utilities [3][4]. Company Overview - Itron generates approximately 60% of its revenue from electricity utilities, 20% from gas, and 20% from water utilities, operating through Device Solutions, Networked Solutions, and Outcomes segments [3]. - The Networked Solutions segment is the largest revenue contributor, providing Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) and Automated Meter Reading (AMR) endpoints, enhancing utility management through two-way communication [3]. Market Dynamics - A replacement cycle is anticipated due to high deployments from 2010 to 2012 and delays caused by COVID-19, expected to drive industry growth at around 5% through 2029 [4]. - Itron is expected to increase its market share from 48% in 2024 to potentially 60% by 2029, capitalizing on the challenges faced by competitor Landis+Gyr [5]. Competitive Advantage - Itron's superior Distributed Intelligence (DI) technology and operational execution position it well to capture market share, especially with Landis+Gyr facing organizational challenges [4][5]. - Control over the network layer enhances customer retention and positions Itron favorably for meter replacements, including approximately 12.5 million Landis meters on third-party networks [5]. Financial Projections - Itron is projected to achieve growth of 7–7.5% through 2027, with EBITDA margins expanding to 16% and EPS reaching $7.5, indicating a potential 30% upside to a target price of $160 by the end of 2026 [6]. - Key catalysts for stock rerating include visibility into the replacement cycle by late 2025 and the impact of network access restrictions in 2026 [6].