Credit Acceptance Corporation (CACC): A Bull Case Theory

Core Thesis - Credit Acceptance Corporation (CACC) presents a compelling investment opportunity due to its historical performance, potential earnings rebound, and favorable market conditions [1][4]. Company Overview - CACC is a seasoned subprime auto lender with over 50 years of operations, having compounded shareholder value significantly, with a stock return of 170x since 1992, translating to a 25% CAGR [2]. - Despite its strong franchise and disciplined capital allocation, the stock trades at approximately 8x normalized EPS, similar to levels six years ago, even as the loan book expanded by around 50% and share count halved [2]. Financial Performance - Recent underperformance is attributed to weak loan cohorts from 2021 to 2023, which negatively impacted revenue yields and profitability [3]. - As these older cohorts season and newer vintages with stricter underwriting come into play, earnings are expected to rebound sharply from 2026 onward [3]. - Management's conservative adjustments and improving revenue and finance charge yields indicate that an earnings inflection is underway [3]. Market Conditions - The withdrawal of the CFPB lawsuit has removed a regulatory overhang, enhancing the investment appeal of CACC [4]. - The potential for significant buybacks could further enhance per-share value, with the stock trading at 11x 2025E EPS and expected to exceed $60 EPS by 2026 and $100 by 2029 [4]. - The stock offers an expected IRR of over 30%, making current levels an attractive long-term entry point [4]. Comparative Analysis - Similar to Upstart Holdings, CACC emphasizes disciplined underwriting and the potential for earnings rebound, despite facing macroeconomic headwinds [5].