博时基金吕瑞君：四季度基本面和流动性对债市或将更加有利

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Conditions - The liquidity in the domestic market remains relatively ample, with the central bank conducting net withdrawals of 244.2 billion yuan last Friday and 64.8 billion yuan on Monday, while also injecting 68.5 billion yuan on Tuesday and 94.7 billion yuan on Wednesday [1] - The 7-day funding rate showed a slight increase, with DR001 remaining stable at 1.32% and DR007 rising by 2 basis points to 1.43% compared to last Friday [1] Group 2: Economic Performance and Outlook - In the first three quarters, the domestic GDP reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, growing by 5.2% year-on-year, with a quarterly growth of 4.8% in Q3 and a 1.1% increase quarter-on-quarter [3] - The economic performance in Q3 showed signs of weakening, particularly in fixed investment, while social financing growth has declined, which is favorable for the bond market [3] - The expectation of monetary policy easing is anticipated, especially if the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates in Q4, which would facilitate domestic monetary loosening [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The National Development Bank ETF (159650) focuses on interbank market national development bonds, which are characterized by high credit ratings, large volumes, and good liquidity, making them attractive investment options [3] - The product features of the National Development Bank ETF include good liquidity, low credit risk, and reasonable risk-return ratios, making it a suitable tool for short-duration allocations [3]