农业农村部：猪肉消费需求季节性增长 价格有望季节性回升

Core Insights - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs released the supply and demand analysis report for bulk agricultural products for September 2025, indicating various trends across different commodities [1] Rice - Domestic market: With the large-scale listing of mid and late rice, supply is expected to increase significantly while terminal demand remains stable, leading to a forecast of weak domestic rice prices [2] - International market: Global rice production is expected to reach a new high in 2025, with weak demand, resulting in low rice prices [2] Wheat - Domestic market: The wheat market has sufficient grain supply, and flour consumption is entering a peak season, with policy storage providing price support, leading to a forecast of stable domestic wheat prices [3] - International market: Global wheat production is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season, with ample supply; however, weather changes in major producing areas may affect the sowing progress for the next year, leading to low price fluctuations internationally [3] Corn - Domestic market: Current carryover stocks are low, and market demand remains stable; with the new season corn being listed, prices are expected to remain stable [4] - International market: The outlook for U.S. corn exports is positive, with expectations for international prices to rebound [4] Soybeans - Domestic market: The soybean market is in a transitional phase between old and new crops, with trade participants adopting a wait-and-see attitude; as new beans are listed post-National Day, supply is expected to increase, and domestic soybean prices are forecasted to remain stable due to high import costs [5] - International market: Soybean prices are mainly influenced by the progress of China-U.S. negotiations and weather conditions, expected to remain low and fluctuate [5] Cotton - Domestic market: Strong expectations for cotton production, with reduced imports and a potential seasonal recovery in demand, leading to a forecast of stable cotton prices [6] - International market: With new cotton from the Northern Hemisphere being listed and increased production expectations, global economic recovery remains weak, leading to no significant improvement in cotton consumption demand, resulting in a forecast of weak international cotton prices [6] Oilseeds - Domestic market: Due to increased import costs and reduced inventory, domestic rapeseed prices are expected to fluctuate strongly; with increased listings in major peanut-producing areas, prices are expected to remain stable but slightly weak [7] - International market: Canadian rapeseed production is expected to increase, leading to a forecast of declining international rapeseed prices; palm oil production is expected to decline, tightening supply and supporting stronger prices [7] Sugar - Domestic market: With new sugar entering the market and continuous imports, domestic supply is ample, and downstream purchasing has slowed, leading to a forecast of stable but weak sugar prices [8] - International market: Several international sugar analysis agencies predict increased production in major producing countries like Brazil, India, and Thailand, leading to expectations of weak fluctuations in international sugar prices [8] Pork - The continuous increase in the number of newborn piglets since the second quarter has led to a peak in pig slaughtering, with supply expected to continue growing; starting in November, southern regions will begin to cure preserved meat, leading to a seasonal increase in pork consumption demand, with prices expected to rise seasonally but remain within a narrow fluctuation range [9]