成本松动 不锈钢反弹空间谨慎看待

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel futures market is experiencing fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 12,810.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.71% increase [1] Inventory and Production Data - As of October 17, stainless steel futures inventory recorded 82,748.00 tons, a decrease of 3,506.00 tons from the previous trading day [2] - On October 24, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported 74,195 tons of stainless steel futures warehouse receipts, a decrease of 181 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - In mid-October, key steel enterprises produced 20.14 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.014 million tons, reflecting a 0.9% decrease in daily output [2] - The production of pig iron was 18.50 million tons, with an average daily output of 1.850 million tons, showing a 1.3% decrease in daily output [2] - Steel production reached 19.76 million tons, with an average daily output of 1.976 million tons, indicating a 0.8% increase in daily output [2] Market Sentiment and Analysis - Guangzhou Futures indicates that the market is supported by rumors of Qing Shan's long positions, but weak demand and declining nickel-iron prices may limit further rebounds, with the main contract expected to trade between 12,500 and 13,000 CNY/ton [3] - South China Futures notes that current stainless steel spot transactions are primarily driven by opportunistic selling, with a technical rebound trend present, but cost reductions are limiting upward momentum; macroeconomic factors such as interest rate cuts and US-China tariff developments are influencing market sentiment [3]